Table of Contents

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Executive Summary

Recommendations

Introduction to mobile broadband computing

Overview

    The perfect storm?

    Use cases for mobile broadband computing

    Key advantages of mobile broadband

Market developments in 2008

    Overview

    Service and business model evolution in 2008

    Mobile broadband device progress in 2008

    Network developments in 2008 – 3G, 4G, WiFi and others

    Storm clouds on the horizon?

Key technologies & enablers

    Overview

    Spectrum – a quick introduction

    HSPA (High Speed Packet Access)

    LTE & 4G

    WiMAX

    Other wireless technologies

    Femtocells

    Silicon platforms

    Web 2.0

    Open source software

Economic background and assumptions

    Global economy

The impending capacity crunch – can it be avoided?

Other bottlenecks & challenges

    Coverage

    Backhaul

    Core network bottlenecks

    Green concerns

    Software issues

    Traffic management

The MBC device landscape

The device continuum – a backgrounder

Definitions – Netbooks, UMPCs, smartphones & MIDs

Convergence vs. Divergence

    Why modules rather than WWAN on motherboard? IPR, testing etc

Is MBC distinct from the mobile phone market?

    The myth of mobile phones substituting for PCs

    Mobile phone as wireless “tether” for PC

Vertical computing & consumer electronics devices

Multi-device mobile broadband

Embedded-WiMAX devices

MIDs – Mobile Internet Devices

History, definition and features of MIDs

    Outstanding questions about MIDs

Smartphones vs. MIDs

The influence of Intel, ARM and other silicon providers

Generic Web-type MID vs. Application-specific MID

Is WiMAX the driving force in MIDs?

MID software considerations

MID adoption catalysed by Telco 2.0 business models?

Regional differences in MID adoption

Conclusions

Notebooks, Netbooks & WWAN-embedded PCs

Overview

Notebook market growth

Dongles and data cards

The connection manager & client software applications

Embedded-3G/WiMAX notebooks

    To embed or not to embed?

    Dongles vs embedded - the end-user perspective

    Dongles vs embedded – the operator perspective

    Dongles vs embedded – the manufacturer perspective

    Quantifying the attach rate for built-in 3G and WiMAX in notebooks

    Can the “attach rate” of 3G in laptops mirror the growth of WiFi?

    How could reaching a 50% attach-rate for 3G built in be accelerated?

Are Netbooks and mini-notebooks really a new segment?

Mobile broadband PCs: catalysts for developing markets?

Enterprise adoption of mobile broadband enabled notebooks

Mobile broadband business models

Mobile services: the grudging move towards “pipes”

“Traditional” post-paid long term contractual subscriptions

Pre-paid / “Pay as you go” subscriptions

Are current business models sustainable?

    Do revenues reflect the underlying cost per MB?

    Can WiMAX fill the “capacity gap”?

    Can operators add value to “dumb pipes”?

    Emergence of “two-sided” Telco 2.0 business models in mobile broadband

    Beyond MVNOs: emergence of wireless broadband wholesale?

Evolving wireless service business models

    Sponsored / “Free” mobile broadband

    Broadband bundled into device purchase price

    Fixed & mobile combined broadband models

    Multi-device business models

Mobile Broadband Market Analysis & Forecasts

Overview and general methodology

Economic background and assumptions

General definitions

Background : the PC marketplace and user base

    Global desktop and notebook PC shipments

    PC installed base

    Notebook / UMPC shipments and segmentation

WWAN attach rates in notebooks

    Embedded notebook sales by technology

MID shipments

Overall mobile computing device market

    Embedded-WWAN device market

    Comparison of WWAN vs. WiFi in notebooks

WWAN Module and modem shipments

    Notebook installed base – role of embedded wireless

Mobile broadband computing – services and business models

    Embedded-WWAN notebooks – service activation and business models

    Non-embedded notebooks – service activation and business models

    Overall notebook user base – broadband activation and business models

Non-embedded WWAN: the market for dongles and tethers

    Overall notebook WWAN connections – embedded modules vs. dongles

MIDs – uptake & business models of broadband services

Overall mobile broadband subscriptions / active users

    Mobile broadband subscriptions – net adds

Overall mobile broadband subscriptions by device type

WiMAX computing device shipments & installed base

3G/LTE mobile computing shipments and installed base

    Overall mobile broadband computing subscribers, 3G/LTE vs WiMAX

    Segmentation by geography

Company strategies for Mobile Broadband

Strategic silicon & software players

    ARM

    Ericsson

    Google

    Intel

    Microsoft

    Qualcomm

    Texas Instruments

Modem & module vendors

    Huawei

    Novatel Wireless

    Option

    Sierra Wireless

Notebook / device vendors

    Acer

    Apple

    Asus

    Dell

    Fujitsu & Fujitsu-Siemens

    HP

    IBM / Lenovo

    Nokia

    Panasonic

    Sony & SonyEricsson

    Toshiba

Other companies – brief summaries

    BenQ

    Gigabyte

    LG

    MSI

    Wind River

About Disruptive Analysis

Intellectual Property Rights / Disclaimer

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List of Figures & Tables

Figure: Propagation issues: optimising for coverage vs capacity

Figure: Difference between paired FDD and unpaired TDD spectrum

Figure: Baseline forecast femtocell shipments, 2008-2013

Figure: The mobile broadband paradox – traffic growth vs revenue

Figure: Propagation in 2.6GHz requires more sites for similar coverage

Figure: Smartphones, MIDs, UMPCs, Netbooks & Notebooks

Figure: Converged platforms, diverged products

Figure: Mobile vs. PC Internet user base, 2008

Figure: Mobile broadband connectivity options for PCs

Figure: Handsets used as 3G/WiMAX “tethers” for notebooks, 2006-2014

Figure: MID category may also blend with non-PC electronic devices

Figure: Early MID examples, December 2008

Figure: Ergonomics rule – MIDs cannot replace smartphones

Figure: Relative shipment volumes of main device categories, 2008

Figure: MID market scenario 1: subsuming niche personal devices

Figure: MID market scenario 2: diverged devices gain wireless

Figure: Generic MID shipments & WWAN attach rate, 2006-2014

Figure: Notebooks can account for 90%+ of 3G data traffic

Figure: Notebooks’ share of PC market has grown steadily, 2000-2008

Figure: Evolution of external 3G modems & dongles

Figure: Subsidised embedded-3G notebooks not necessarily cheaper

Figure: Same notebook, different WWAN options & routes to market

Figure: Rapid ramp-up of WiFi “attach rate” in notebooks, 2000-2008

Figure: Embedded WiFi in notebooks drives only limited paid usage

Figure: Examples of commercially available netbook models, Nov 2008

Figure: Selected consumer mobile broadband monthly tariffs

Figure: Emergence of “two-sided” business models

Figure: Emerging fixed+mobile broadband offerings

Figure: Mobile broadband users, split by business/payment model

Figure: Mobile broadband market model, methodology & flow

Table: Global PC shipments, desktops & notebooks, 2006-2014

Figure: Global PC shipments, desktops & notebooks, 2006-2014

Table: Global PC installed base, desktops vs. notebooks, 2006-2014

Figure: Global PC installed base, desktops vs. notebooks, 2006-2014

Table: Global notebook / netbook / UMPC shipment segments, 2006-2014

Figure: Notebook / netbook / UMPC shipments by segment, 2006-2014

Table: Embedded-WWAN attach rate by notebook segment, 2006-2014

Table: Embedded-WWAN notebook / netbook shipments, 2006-2014

Figure: Notebook WWAN attach rate by segment, 2006-2014

Figure: Overall notebook WWAN module attach rate, 2006-2014

Figure: Embedded-WWAN vs. non-WWAN notebooks, 2006-2014

Table: Embedded-WWAN vs. non-WWAN shipments, 2006-2014

Table: Embedded-WWAN PC sales, WiMAX vs. 3G/LTE, 2006-2014

Figure: Embedded-WWAN notebook sales, WiMAX vs. 3G, 2006-2014

Table: Generic MID shipments & WWAN attach rate, 2006-2014

Figure: Generic MID shipments & WWAN attach rate, 2006-2014

Table: WWAN-enabled MID shipments, WiMAX vs. 3G, 2008-2014

Figure: WWAN-enabled MID shipments, WiMAX vs. 3G, 2008-2014

Figure: Total notebook, netbook, UMPC & MID market volume, 2006-2014

Table: Total notebook, netbook, UMPC & MID market value, 2006-2014

Figure: Total notebook, netbook, UMPC & MID market value, 2006-2014

Figure: Total notebook, netbook, UMPC & MID market volume, 2006-2014

Table: WWAN-embedded notebook, MID & UMPC mkt volume 2006-14

Table: WWAN-embedded notebook, MID & UMPC mkt value 2006-14

Figure: WWAN-embedded notebook, MID & UMPC mkt volume 2006-14

Table: Relative uptake of embedded WWAN vs. WiFi in notebooks

Figure: Relative uptake of embedded WWAN vs. WiFi in notebooks

Table: Total mobile broadband modem & module shipments 2006-14

Figure: Total mobile broadband modem & module shipments 2006-14

Table: Notebook installed base, % embedded wireless, 2006-14

Figure: Notebook installed base, % embedded wireless, 2006-14

Table: WWAN notebooks: Service uptake & business models 2006-14

Figure: WWAN notebooks: Service uptake & business models 2006-14

Table: Non-WWAN notebooks: Service uptake & bus. models 2006-14

Figure: Non-WWAN notebooks: Service uptake & bus. models 2006-14

Table: All notebooks: Mobile broadband uptake & bus. models 2006-14

Figure: All notebooks: Mobile broadband uptake & bus. models 2006-14

Table: Non-WWAN notebooks: cards vs. dongles vs. tethers, 2006-14

Table: Non-WWAN notebooks: cards vs. dongles vs. tethers, 2006-14

Figure: Notebook datacards, USB, tethers, embedded modems, 2006-14

Table: Notebook datacards, USB, tethers, embedded modems, 2006-14

Table: MIDs - mobile broadband uptake & business models, 2006-14

Figure: MIDs - mobile broadband uptake & business models, 2006-14

Table: Subcribers: traditional vs. innovative business models 2006-14

Figure: Subscribers: traditional vs. innovative business models 2006-14

Table: Mobile broadband subs – net adds by business model, 2006-14

Figure: Mobile broadband users, split by business/payment model

Table: Mobile broadband computing subs, by device type, 2006-14

Figure: Mobile broadband computing subs, by device type, 2006-14

Table: Mobile broadband computing net adds, by device type, 2006-14

Table: Mobile WiMAX computing & modem device shipments, 2006-14

Figure: Mobile WiMAX computing & modem device shipments, 2006-14

Table: Mobile WiMAX computing & modem device installed base, 2006-14

Table: Mobile WiMAX computing & modem active subscribers, 2006-14

Figure: Mobile WiMAX computing & modem active subscribers, 2006-14

Table: 3G/LTE mobile computing & modem device shipments, 2006-14

Figure: 3G/LTE mobile computing & modem device shipments, 2006-14

Table: 3G/LTE mobile computing & modem device inst. base, 2006-14

Table: 3G/LTE mobile computing & modem active subscribers, 2006-14

Figure: 3G/LTE mobile computing & modem active subs, 2006-14

Table: Total mobile broadband computing subs, 3G vs WiMAX, 2006-14

Figure: Total mobile broadband subs, 3G vs WiMAX, 2006-14

Table: Total mobile broadband computing users by region, 2006-14

Figure: Total mobile broadband computing users by region, 2006-14

Table: European mobile broadband users by country, 2007-10

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