WLAN & Cellular Communications Due to Converge – 25m Hybrid Devices by 2006, According to Disruptive Analysis

[London, UK, 25th September 2003]  A new report from research firm Disruptive Analysis predicts the convergence of wireless technologies, and in particular examines the emergence of cellular / WLAN hybrid products and services. By the end of 2006, the analyst firm foresees there could be as many as 25m “multimode” wireless devices worldwide, mostly laptops, PDAs and mobile phones.

‘Multimode’ functionality will aim to deliver “seamless” mobility: devices which will automatically roam from one network type to another. Packaged into broader solutions, such devices will, theoretically, switch to the best available wireless network, based on bandwidth, quality and price, without interrupting traffic or applications. (Note: multimode roaming is also referred to as “seamless mobility”, “access agnosticism”, “always best connected” and  “multi-access mobility”).

Disruptive Analysis’ new study, “Multimode Wireless, The New Mobility Value Chain” is the first comprehensive research note published on this theme. The report examines a broad range of viewpoints, including those of service providers, device manufacturers, semiconductor firms, network equipment suppliers, software vendors, end-users and investors. Each group has a different take on how different wireless technologies, and sometimes wired networks as well, can be successfully blended.

The report’s key findings are:

• Multimode’s genesis has occurred by accident, not design. Key drivers have been slow 2.5G / 3G rollout and uptake, coupled with the rapid acceleration of WLAN usage. Early business models are diverse: the winners are unclear.
• The market will initially be driven by laptops and industrial handhelds, typically provided as part of large custom systems integration projects. Key early adopters are corporate mobile workforces (“road warriors”), field service/logistics personnel and military/public safety forces.
• Multimode wireless voice products and services also have great potential, with hybrid WLAN/cellular handsets emerging in 2004. Again, these will have greatest impact in the corporate market; ROI arguments based on least-cost routing and simpler device management are likely to be compelling.
• The common view that cellular operators are natural winners in providing multimode services is highly questionable. Although many are deploying WLAN services, Disruptive Analysis sees this mostly as a damage-limitation exercise: independent multimode poses threats to carriers’ 2.5/3G data pricing models. Few operators have corporate-grade solutions sales, software integration or customer support abilities; they will need to have deeper partnerships with IT firms, or wholesale data access to specialist providers.
• There is a major opportunity for outsourced corporate mobility solutions. Disruptive Analysis expects Enterprise Mobility Service Providers (EMSPs) to emerge, offering combined cellular / WLAN / fixed dial & broadband connectivity, bundled with device, software and application support. Large IT outsourcers and integrators, along with telecom operators with significant corporate solutions expertise, are likely to be the leaders in this space.

However, Disruptive Analysis believes those companies looking to exploit these opportunities will have to contend with stiff challenges: the evolution of multimode wireless is still at a very early stage. User awareness of the benefits is still low, industry cooperation is patchy, a variety of technical issues remain and existing data mobility business models – especially cellular operators’ – are threatened. Focused and much-improved planning and marketing will be essential – and certain companies will have to grasp uncomfortable nettles and develop more pragmatic attitudes towards their commercial relationships and partners.

If these issues are resolved satisfactorily, the multimode wireless space could expand very rapidly. Disruptive Analysis forecasts a potential 25m worldwide installed base of WLAN/cellular devices by end-2006, together with a market for managed corporate mobility services in excess of $4bn.

The report, “Multimode Wireless, The New Mobility Value Chain” is available from Disruptive Analysis. Please email info@disruptive-analysis.com for more details.

About Disruptive Analysis

Disruptive Analysis is a new technology-focused advisory firm, providing critical commentary and consulting support, to telecoms/IT vendors, users, investors and intermediaries. It focuses on communications industry areas with complex value chains, rapid technical/market evolution, or labyrinthine business relationships, considering many more "angles" than is typical. Currently, the company is focusing on the wireless and mobility marketplace, alongside additional research on networks, VoIP, telecom OSS solutions and enterprise IT infrastructure. Disruptive Analysis' motto is "Don't Assume". www.disruptive-analysis.com

Copyright 2007 Disruptive Analysis Ltd.                                       Disclaimer