From "Dumb Pipe" to "Happy Pipe"
Produced by Disruptive
Analysis and published by Telco 2.0 / STL Partners
Both fixed and mobile broadband markets will
continue growing in revenues, up to $416bn in 2020, but operators face some
hard decisions about future business models, according to a study published by
the Telco 2.0TM Initiative and co-authored by research & consulting
firm Disruptive Analysis.
The new report, “Mobile, Fixed & Wholesale
Broadband Business Models: Best Practice Innovation, ‘Telco 2.0'
Opportunities, Forecasts and Future Scenarios” finds that telecom
operators will benefit from both new types of broadband wholesale, and more
sophisticated direct-to-user retail propositions and tariffs.
Recent introductions of new tiered and capped
wireless Internet data plans are early evidence of this trend.
Key findings from the
report include:
·
Global broadband access is forecast to
increase from $274bn in 2010, to $416bn in 2020, an increase of 52% in revenue
terms.
·
More than half the revenue growth will
come from wholesale and “two-sided” fees for improved access capacity and
quality. This means revenue from parties other than the end-user themselves.
·
By 2020, mobile broadband will be
worth $138bn, or 32% of the total broadband access industry revenues.
·
Three new revenue streams are
identified: “Bulk Wholesale”, “Comes with Data”, “Slice and Dice”.
·
New ‘upstream’ customers are forecast
to generate over $90 billion in broadband revenues globally by 2020.
Today, many operators
fear the supposed risks of becoming “dumb pipes”, but the study suggests the
forecast market value means the term “happy pipe” is more appropriate
for some. Certain telecom carriers will be able to add further value through
enhanced “Telco 2.0” value-add services and platforms, but it is
important to note that the basic carriage of data can itself be profitable and
a source of substantial growth.
The incremental revenue opportunity for new
“slice and dice” wholesale business models in mobile broadband alone is
forecast to be $21bn worldwide by 2020.
The report covers:
- Best practice innovation, and detailed
assessment of ‘Telco 2.0' opportunities, in Mobile Broadband, Advanced
New Wholesale, and Fixed Retail Broadband Business Models
- Four scenarios for broadband market players:
‘Telco 2.0 Player', ‘Happy Piper', ‘Device Specialist', and
‘Government Department'
- Covering mobile broadband (HSPA, WiMAX, LTE)
and ADSL, cable, fibre
- Detailed discussion about whether broadband
providers can develop new revenue streams from content providers,
Internet players and cloud application developers
- Disruptive Analysis / Telco 2.0's forecasts for
the Broadband Access market
- An advanced and detailed ‘Use Case' for a
specific Telco 2.0 Opportunity, ‘Managed Offload of Mobile Broadband
to Fixed Networks'
- Conclusions and recommendations for Telcos and
other Broadband Service providers (BSPs) and their partners
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The report is a 'must read' for CxOs, strategists and
broadband product managers seeking to develop their business strategies and
position their products and ideas, within operators, vendors, investors,
regulators and government bodies.
Report Details
- 249 pages
- 90 charts, tables and forecasts
- Manuscript format
- Detailed outline and contents below
- Published: April 2010
- Developed by Disruptive Analysis, published under the
Telco 2.0 brand by Disruptive Analysis
Pricing and Ordering
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The rest of this page contains:
Introduction
Broadband continues to grow in both market penetration and sophistication,
with the addition of fibre and mobile access as key enablers.
Figure 1. Global
broadband access lines, 2000-2020
Source: Telco 2.0 Mobile and Fixed Future Broadband Business Models
However, while speeds and mobility are improving, there
are complex challenges to the business model for service providers. These
include:
- Maturing products and business models
- Convergence of fixed and mobile technology and
product offerings
- Greater state intervention in deploying and
controlling broadband access
- A more complex broadband ecosystem
- New consumer behaviour and higher expectations
See here for an extract from the overview of
the report on the main themes and challenges that it addresses. Among these
challenges are:
- What are the realistic prospects for non-subscription
models for fixed and mobile broadband, such as prepaid / transactional /
free / "comes with data", bundled with device purchase, "sliced and diced",
etc.?
- A critical analysis of whether operators can charge
content / Internet companies for access to 'their pipes', and in what
circumstances this may be commercially and operationally feasible.
- What is the changing role of Government in the
broadband marketplace?
- Is Mobile Broadband substitional or synergistic with
Fixed?
Overall, new business models will be necessary to help justify extra
infrastructure investment as end-user spending on broadband access reaches
market saturation.
Figure 2: Next-generation broadband will need new
revenue sources
Source: Telco 2.0 Mobile and Fixed Future Broadband
Business Models
The report covers the impact of key factors such as DPI, QoS. Net Neutrality,
LTE, Fibre, IPTV, Video demand, mobile broadband, convergence, LLU, MVNOs,
Machine-to-Machine, Cloud Computing, and regulation. It explores both
developed and developing markets.
Following the introduction and market overview, the report contains chapters
of detailed analysis of best practice innovation (e.g. pricing, propositions,
technologies, etc.) and ‘Telco 2.0' new business model opportunities in:
- Fixed Retail Broadband
- Mobile Retail Broadband
- Advanced Wholesale Broadband business models.
The ‘Telco 2.0' propositions are based on the 'two-sided' telecoms business
model theory that broadband capacity can sold to "upstream" media or
application providers. The report examines theoretical use cases and some
compelling potential business models.
Figure 3: the Two-Sided Telecoms Business Model
Source: Telco 2.0 Analysis
Taking one of the specific opportunities identified, the report details a ‘Use
Case' for offloading excess mobile traffic to fixed operators, via WiFi or
femtocells. This represents
a wholesale opportunity for fixed BSPs and an opportunity for Mobile BSPs to
manage the rising costs of carrying large volumes of data
traffic.
Figure 4: Forms of managed offload from fixed/cable
operators
Source: Telco 2.0 Mobile and Fixed Future Broadband
Business Models
The report describes four possible scenarios for broadband service providers
and the benefits and risks of pursuing each strategy.
Figure 5: Potential scenarios for BSPs
Source: Telco 2.0 Mobile and Fixed Future Broadband Business Models
Forecasts and Conclusions
The report is completed by global forecasts for each of the core business
models for broadband service providers (detailed below), conclusions, and an
overview of the relative attractiveness of the scenarios.
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wide licenses, or US$ or Euro pricing, please email
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Telecoms Operators' and other Broadband Service
Providers':
- Strategy departments
- Central research libraries & market research
functions
- CTO office, Strategic Marketing, Business Development
- Wholesale Departments
- Government & Regulatory Affairs depts
- Network architects & planners
- Broadband services marketing departments (fixed,
cable and mobile)
Vendor audiences:
- Marketing / business development / strategy functions
- Fixed broadband access equipment vendors
- Wireless network radio & transport vendors
- IP core suppliers
- Fixed-broadband terminal suppliers
- Mobile broadband device suppliers
- Policy management, DPI & control specialists
- Billing & OSS suppliers
- Silicon and "enabler" providers
Regulators and other Government departments
Investors
Consultants & integrators
Executive Summary
Part 1: Background to the Broadband Industry
- Market adoption of broadband and the four scenarios
- Fibre and next-generation access: the missing
business model
- Video: killer app, or network-killer?
- Mobile broadband: Hype & realism
- Convergence of fixed / mobile broadband
- Evolving regulation: help or hindrance?
- Government & ‘National Broadband'
- Broadband in the developing world
- The vendor landscape
Part 2: Fixed retail broadband business models
- Retail broadband scenario options
- Cable vs ADSL vs Fibre - same models, or
fundamentally different?
- Pricing options: capping and tiering,
application-specific caps and tiers, specific zero-rated / unmetered sites &
services
- Video: providers: the power-brokers? Triple-play /
IPTV.
- Incremental services, cross-network Internet
services, prepay fixed broadband
- Fibre
- Future value-add services? Smart grids, telemedicine
and ‘The Cloud'
- The impact of local-loop unbundling and structural
separation
Part 3: Mobile Broadband Retail Business Models
- Mobile broadband computing
- Smartphone business models
- M2M broadband business models
- Do revenues reflect costs?
- Wholesale mobile broadband and MVNOs
- Enablers and technologies
Part 4: Advanced broadband wholesale business models
- Bulk broadband wholesale models
- Creating next-gen wholesale
- Telco-Telco wholesale 2.0
- Broadband capacity ‘slice and dice'
- Marketing & selling wholesale
Part 5: Use Case: Managed Offload of Mobile Broadband
Part 6: Forecasts and Conclusions
A full table of contents and figures can be
downloaded here.
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wide licenses, or US$ or Euro pricing, please email
here |
- Global broadband access lines, 2000-2020
- Global broadband access lines by technology, 2005-10
- Global fixed broadband by region, mid-2009
- Global broadband traffic
- Ultra-fast broadband availability in developed
markets
- Global mobile broadband computing users
- Examples of government broadband-related stimulus
plans
- How uptake of broadband impacts GDP
- Global fixed broadband lines
- Wholesale within global fixed broadband, 2010
- The Global Online Video Market ($Billions)
- European fibre penetration forecast 2013
- Mobile broadband active user base
- Global 3G data traffic by device type, mid-2009
- Global mobile broadband computing users
- Vodafone UK mobile broadband pricing trends
- Traffic volumes for mobile broadband vs. revenues
- Fixed and mobile broadband wholesale revenues
- Global mobile broadband computing subscribers
- Forecast broadband wholesale revenues by category
- Global retail broadband subscribers 2005-2020
- Global average retail charges for broadband 2005-2020
- Broadband Retail Market Value 2005-2020
- Percentage of broadband lines supplied via bulk
wholesale 2005-2020
- Average global wholesale prices 2005-2020
- Global bulk wholesale access market 2005-2020
- Global slice-and-dice revenues per line 2005-2020
- Global slice-and-dice incremental wholesale access
revenues 2005-2020
- Global active users of broadband without a
subscription 2005-2010
- Active broadband users including ‘comes with data'
- Global non-subscription upstream revenues per user
per year 2005-2020
- Global ‘comes with data' broadband access 2005-2020
- Global wholesale revenues 2005-2020
- Global broadband access market 2005-2020
- Breakdown of global wholesale revenues 2005-2020
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wide licenses, or US$ or Euro pricing, please email
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