Outcome (Nov 2007)

Yes - recognition that consumers have multiple handsets, although still some rhetoric about 'Swiss Army Knife' devices. Resurgence of laptop use for mobile broadband also plays here.

Increasing implicit mentions (eg references to LTE, push-to-talk) but surprisingly little large-scale debate compared with higher-profile VoWLAN & femtocells.

A few more moves here - eg BT, iPass, specialists for M2M applications but no sign of IT players like IBM seriously moving to become MVNOs

Absolutely correct. Around 1m UMA subscribers & some use of standalone SIP, pre-VCC or proprietary VoIP clients on WLAN phones, but more important qualitatively than quantitatively

Definitely. WiMAX ratified as 3G by ITU, debates around tech-neutrality for spectrum in EU ongoing, 700MHz controversy in US, battle brewing between mobile & TV industries over UHF frequencies.

Correct. IMS hasn't evaporated, but is has become diluted. Being adopted in piecemeal fashion, with much less emphasis on walled-garden services. Recognition that IMS will need to coexist with the Internet & private IP domains, but still a lot of work to do on integration.

Navigation becomes rather more important on mobiles. Mobile search doesn't.

Correct. Growing buzz around GPS-enabled handsets. Mobile search is increasingly the same as the real Internet - ie mostly Google.

Correct. Hype has dissipated, many schemes have been scale back or cancelled. Some niche use cases, but it is being recast as 'wireless for CCTV and parking attendants' rather than a breakthrough for general-purposes Internet or voice connectivity.

Flat-rate data becomes the norm, with browsing the killer app, driven by high-res screens

Almost there. Flatrate isn't quite the 'norm' yet, but is becoming widely available in developed markets, albeit with some onerous terms-of-service. Recognition that laptops are driving 3G data revenues. Data roaming still often overpriced by 100x or more. 2008?

Mobile IM - slow; HSDPA-embedded laptops - slow; WiMAX - slow; Mobile TV - slow; Mobile Web 2.0 - starting to show signs.

Apple iPhone a diverged device or 'just a phone'. OK, hands up, that one was a bad call....

Corporate use of mobile phones makes wireline-based PBXs obsolete

IP-PBXs integrate with corporate IT & business processes. Also cost.

Mobile email is the next "killer app" for wireless data services

Rolling out push email to all employees, plus consumer demand for access to webmail accounts

Indoor coverage systems for cellular networks are just tactical solutions

Poor 3G indoor performance will bring the issue to the fore

Linux represents a major threat to Symbian and Microsoft in smartphone operating systems

Most mobile Linux will be low-level embedded OS for featurephones

Cellular operators are the natural winners for Public WLAN services, leveraging their customer base & SIM cards

More natural synergy with hotspots affiliated to users' corporate or home broadband Internet providers

Mobile operators must avoid becoming "pipes" and should use concentrate on branded services and walled gardens

Demand for mobile access to "the real Internet" driven by broadband users' experience & expectations

HSDPA will be deployed in the near future by many mobile operators, and used for high-bandwidth services competing with wireline

HSDPA will offer better latency and in-building coverage, but backhaul limitations will restrict bandwidth

The most important aspect of VoWLAN / cellular convergence is the ability to offer "seamless" roaming between the 2 domains

"Seamlessness" is over-hyped, and can break data applications and service models.

Push-to-Talk will drive significant ARPU uplift for operators

The only form of VoIP that get customers to spend more. Yeah, right.

Outside of niche markets, MMS is destined for continued failure

MMS pricing is often still too high and user experience poor. Megapixel camera images too large

Cellular operators should implement attempt to bill differentially for the "value" of various content types

Wireless LANs will enjoy rapid uptake in enterprises and public areas, reducing the market available for 2.5G and 3G mobile services

The mobile phone industry is evolving towards the same value-chain model as the PC industry

Future "interactive homes" will have typically a single broadband network connection and service provider

Broadband access networks are essential for eGovernment and national competitiveness

IP-based PBXs will benefit from substantial market growth in coming years, but will not dominate conventional phone systems overnight

"IT spending", "IT market size", "IT vendor revenues" and "IT budget" all refer to the same thing