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The evolution of SIP- and IMS-capable mobile handsets, June 2006

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market drivers & usage cases

SIP and IMS handset architectures

Market Size & Segmentation

Dual-mode WLAN/cellular, SIP and IMS

STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION ITEMS

For all telecom operators

For mobile-only operators

For IMS handset software specialists

For handset OS and application suite vendors

For fixed, broadband and VoIP vendors

For handset manufacturers and silicon suppliers

Network infrastructure and application vendors

Consulting and integration specialists

For software developers

Enterprises

Investors

INTRODUCTION TO SIP AND IMS

SIP background

SIP in a nutshell

A quick history of the SIP protocol

What makes SIP different?

How SIP works (at a very basic level)

Why are SIP-capable handsets important?

IMS background

IMS in a nutshell

IMS architecture

Why do telecom service providers want IMS?

Disruptive Analysis Opinion – Where IMS fails: applications vs services

What does IMS mean for the handset?

IMS vs. Service Delivery Platforms vs. OSS

3GPP2, CDG and MMD

Integrating non-IMS devices into an IMS service framework

Non-IMS SIP-capable devices

Non-IMS devices

MARKET DRIVERS FOR SIP/IMS-CAPABLE HANDSETS

Introduction

External market drivers

Overview

Enterprise market drivers

Operator market drivers and “pre-IMS”

Consumer market drivers

Internal trends in the mobile handset industry

Overview

Increasing complexity of handset software

Handset market growth and the need for differentiation & segmentation

Ever-greater processing and memory capability of handsets

Emergence of multiple smart OSs and application frameworks

Multitasking handsets

Multimode handsets

Handsets as consumer electronics and “PC/Internet extension” devices

Operator customisation of handsets and improving UI design

Role of OMA and other standards and specification bodies

Patents and intellectual property

USE CASES FOR SIP/IMS MOBILE PHONES

Introduction

Operator-controlled IMS applications

PoC – Push-to-Talk Over Cellular

Operator-specific presence and IM

Push-to-View

Multimedia conferencing

Voice messaging

Push-to-X

IMS-enhanced gaming services

Mobile operator VoIP

Combinational services

Enterprise SIP applications

“Open Internet” SIP applications

Can mobile operators block non-IMS SIP?

SIP and IMS for Fixed-Mobile Convergence

Integrating SIP/IMS with handset “virtual machines”

Overview

Java

BREW

DoJa

WIPI

User interface layers

Other usage cases

IMS as an enabler of triple- / quad-play services

SIP/IMS HANDSETS: EVOLVING ARCHITECTURES

Introduction and overview

SIP-capable handsets

Overview and segmentation

Naked SIP smartphones

Naked SIP featurephones

Closed SIP smartphones

Closed SIP featurephones

IMS-capable handsets

Overview and segmentation

What’s in an IMS phone?

From IMS client to All-IMS phones

Partial IMS featurephones

Partial IMS smartphones

Full IMS featurephones

Full IMS smartphones

Standards bodies and IMS handsets

How does IMS fit with the OMA’s efforts?

Creating SIP and IMS applications: other components

Overview

Capabilities of the underlying silicon and hardware platform

The radio(s)

2G IMS devices?

Processor(s) and memory

Input / output devices

IP networking elements

Creating VoIP applications

Codecs

Echo cancellation

Session mobility and “seamless handover”

UMA / GAN

VCC

End-user SIP handover

Summary

SIP/IMS MOBILE PHONE MARKET FORECASTS

Overview

Methodology

Definitions and scope of forecasts

General assumptions

Wildcards

Top-level analysis, by type of IMS/SIP implementation

Segmentation by handset type

Geographic segmentation

CDMA vs GSM/UMTS

Segmentation by type of bearer (cellular, dual-mode etc)

SIP/IMS PHONES: COMPANY POSITIONS & PROFILES

Overview

Smartphone OS vendors

Overview

Access / PalmSource

Microsoft

SavaJe

Symbian

Trolltech

RIM

Qualcomm

Others

SIP handset software client specialists

Overview

Cicero Networks

Core Mobility

CounterPath

HelloSoft

SIPQuest

Sonim

TapRoot Systems

Others

IMS handset software client specialists

Overview

Ecrio

Ericsson / Ericsson Mobile Platforms

fg Microtec

Flextronics Software Systems / KKR

Movial

Nable Communications

NMS / Openera

PCTel

Qualphone

General handset application software suppliers

Overview

OpenWave

Teleca Obigo

TTPCom

Intrinsyc

Others

Other stakeholders & market participants

Handset manufacturers

Nokia

Motorola

Samsung

HTC

SonyEricsson

BenQ / Siemens

Others

Semiconductor companies

Network infrastructure & server vendors

Open Source Software

Tables of Charts, Figures & Tables

Table 1: Forecast worldwide SIP-based IP-PBX / hosted telephony lines

Table 2: Major announced carrier IMS/pre-IMS deployments

Table 3: Forecast residential fixed-VoIP subscribers

Table 4: VoWLAN handset shipment forecast

Table 5: SIP-enabled and IMS-capable handsets, volume by category

Table 6: SIP-enabled & IMS-capable handsets, % volume by category

Table 7: Partial & Customised IMS vs Full-IMS handsets

Table 8: Naked SIP handsets vs. Closed IMS handsets

Table 9: Overall handset market volume, segmented by handset type

Table 10: Overall handset market, segmented % by handset type

Table 11: IMS-capable handsets, % penetration by handset type

Table 12: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, volumes by type

Table 13: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, % by handset type

Table 14: Naked SIP handsets, % penetration by handset type

Table 15: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, volumes by type

Table 16: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, % by handset type

Table 17: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, volumes by type

Table 18: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, % by handset type

Table 19: Overall handset market volume, segmented by geography

Table 20: Overall handset market, segmented % by geography

Table 21: IMS-capable handsets, % penetration by geography

Table 22: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, volumes by geo

Table 23: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, % by geography

Table 24: Naked SIP handsets, % penetration by geography

Table 25: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, volumes by geo

Table 26: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, % by geography

Table 27: All SIP-enabled handsets, % penetration by geography

Table 28: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, volumes by geo

Table 29: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, % by geography

Table 30: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, GSM vs CDMA

Table 31: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, GSM vs CDMA

Table 32: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, GSM vs CDMA

Table 33: Segmentation of IMS-capable handset shipments, volume

Table 34: Segmentation of IMS-capable handset shipments, % by bearer

Table 35: Segmentation of Naked SIP handset shipments, volume

Table 36: Segmentation of Naked SIP handset shipments, % by bearer

Table 37: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handset shipments, volume

Table 38: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, % by bearer

Figure 1: # of Non-IMS Mobile SIP Applications will exceed IMS Services

Figure 2: Categorising and segmenting IMS-capable mobile handsets

Figure 3: IMS architecture

Figure 4: Historic use of “Silo” applications for mobile services

Figure 5: IMS is only about services, not applications

Figure 6: Big picture: IMS implementation & rollout timelines

Figure 7: Uncertainty reigns: not all IP cores will end up as IMS

Figure 8: Basic hardware and software architecture of a mobile phone

Figure 9: Emerging handset OS/network landscape

Figure 10: Handset OS, app suites and VMs – towards multitasking

Figure 11: Number of Non-IMS SIP Applications will exceed IMS Services

Figure 12: Categorising and segmenting SIP-capable mobile handsets

Figure 13: Architecture of smartphone with “Naked SIP”

Figure 14: Architecture of featurephone with “Naked SIP”

Figure 15: Architecture of smartphone with “Closed SIP”

Figure 16: Architecture of featurephone with “Closed SIP”

Figure 17: Categorising and segmenting IMS-capable mobile handsets

Figure 18: IMS takes over the handset…. but perhaps retreats again?

Figure 19: Architecture of “partial IMS” featurephone

Figure 20: Architecture of “partial IMS” smartphone

Figure 21: Architecture of a “full IMS” featurephone

Figure 22: Architecture of a “full IMS” smartphone

Figure 23: Scenarios – overlap of SIP and IMS handset capabilities

Figure 24: Access Linux Platform

Figure 25: HelloSoft Cellular VoIP architecture

Figure 26: Sonim’s PoC client architecture

Figure 27: Flextronics/HSS IMS Client Framework architecture

Figure 28: PCTel IMS Client Timeline

Figure 29: Obigo Architecture

Figure 30: TTPCom Architecture

Chart 1: Naked SIP handsets vs. Closed IMS handsets

Chart 2: Segmentation of IMS-capable handset shipments, % by bearer

Chart 3: Forecast uptake of enterprise instant messaging

Chart 4: Estimated user base of consumer instant messaging.

Chart 5: Global cellular handset market shipment forecast

Chart 6: Dual-mode WLAN/cellular device market forecast

Chart 7: SIP-enabled and IMS-capable handsets, volume by category

Chart 8: Partial & Customised IMS vs Full-IMS handsets

Chart 9: Naked SIP handsets vs. Closed IMS handsets

Chart 10: Overall handset market volume, segmented by handset type

Chart 11: IMS-capable handsets, % penetration by handset type

Chart 12: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, volumes by type

Chart 13: Naked SIP handsets, % penetration by handset type

Chart 14: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, volumes by type

Chart 15: All SIP-enabled handsets, % penetration by handset type

Chart 16: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, volumes by type

Chart 17: Overall handset market volume, segmented by geography

Chart 18: IMS-capable handsets, % penetration by geography

Chart 19: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, volumes by geo

Chart 20: Naked SIP handsets, % penetration by geography

Chart 21: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, volumes by geo

Chart 22: All SIP-enabled handsets, % penetration by geography

Chart 23: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, volumes by geo

Chart 24: Segmentation of IMS-capable handsets, GSM vs CDMA

Chart 25: Segmentation of Naked SIP handsets, GSM vs CDMA

Chart 26: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, GSM vs CDMA

Chart 27: Segmentation of IMS-capable handset shipments, % by bearer

Chart 28: Segmentation of Naked SIP handset shipments, % by bearer

Chart 29: Segmentation of all SIP-enabled handsets, % by bearer