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VoIPo3G Business Models, November 2007
Contents
(download as PDF)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Making the case for VoIPo3G
CDMA and UMTS roadmaps for VoIPo3G
Market analysis & forecasts
The role of partnership business models
VoWLAN and VoIPo3G
Methodology, definitions and assumptions
Structure of this report
RECOMMENDATIONS
For all telecom operators
For CDMA/UMB operators
For HSPA/LTE operators
For network equipment and application vendors
For handset manufacturers & silicon suppliers
For independent VoIP and broadband specialists
For other software developers
For consulting and integration specialists
For investors
For enterprises
USE CASES & DEMAND DRIVERS FOR VOIPO3G
Introduction
Moving towards all-IP cellular networks
Improve radio network capacity
Core network & application layer convergence synergies
Gaining early experience of VoIP before 3.9G
Competition / parity with EVDO & WiMAX
Innovative VoIP-based telephony services
Interconnect arbitrage
VoIP cellular “second line”
Telco 2.0 / voice 2.0
High-quality telephony
Enterprise use of VoIPo3G
Non-telephony VoIP services
Push-to-talk
Multimedia telephony
Application-embedded VoIP
Device-embedded VoIP
Social networking, mashups and Web 2.0
Server-based VoIPo3G / surveillance
Encrypted voice
Coexistence with VoWLAN
VOIPO3G TECHNOLOGY: REQUIREMENTS & ENABLERS
VoIPo3G – The big picture: what’s required?
Technical requirements & challenges for VoIPo3G
Overview
Capacity
Latency
Power efficiency
3G coverage and indoor performance
Mobility
Inter-technology handovers
QoS and voice quality
Roaming
Security
Migration
Other requirements for VoIPo3G
3G radio technology
Overview
Header compression
Advanced receivers – Rake and diversity
MIMO and beam-forming
Complexity issues and “flattening the network”
OFDM / OFDMA
3G coverage improvements
Scheduling and re-transmission algorithms
Codecs
Alternatives to VoIPo3G
Overview
Circuit-switched voice
VoIP gateways in the network
VoWLAN
VoWiMAX
VoIP over 2G
Other forms of wVoIP
OPERATOR VOIP ON CDMA EVDO / UMB NETWORKS
Overview
Qualcomm-related issues
EV-DO Rev A: technological optimisations for VoIP
Does VoIP work over EV-DO Rev 0?
EV-DO Rev B and UMB (formerly Rev C)
Rev A and UMB operator deployments and vendors
Operator deployments and commitments to future CDMA
versions
Rev A / UMB radio and infrastructure suppliers
CDMA & femtocells
Core networks & IMS
VoIPoCDMA handsets & chipsets: availability and suppliers
Market predictions – Operator VoIP over CDMA
Conclusions – VoIP over CDMA
OPERATOR VOIP OVER 3GPP HSPA / LTE NETWORKS
Overview
Introduction and glossary: UMTS, HSPA, LTE etc
Standards overview
HSPA – suitable for VoIPo3G?
Overview
VoIPoWCDMA and VoIPo2G
VoIPoHSDPA
VoIPoHSUPA
HSPA status: deployments and vendors
Conclusion: current HSPA is not wholly suitable for operator
VoIP
Future 3GPP variants: HSPA+, LTE, NGMN
Spectrum issues
HSPA+ / HSPA Evolution
LTE
Should operators wait for LTE to deploy VoIPo3G?
SAE and “flattened” IP architectures
NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Network)
VoIPo3G network core & applications: IMS-based?
Overview: VoIPo3G – what is the VoIP architecture behind HSPA/LTE?
The role of IMS
Alternatives to IMS
The role of VCC
3GPP VoIMS (VoIP over IMS)
3GPP IMS Multimedia Telephony / MTSI / MMtel
Lack of imagination – no concept of “voice 2.0”?
Vendors’ positioning on VoIPo3G application infrastructure
Operator VoIPo3G in handsets
Market predictions – Operator VoIP over HSPA/LTE
Conclusions – Operator VoIP over UMTS/HSPA and LTE
INDEPENDENT & PRE-LOADED / PARTNERED VOIPO3G
Market drivers & enablers for 3rd-party VoIPo3G
Introduction
Prerequisites
Capabilities of the radio network: HSPA and EV-DO
The growth of flatrate data tariffs
Data plan terms and conditions
Case study #1 – Vodafone UK
Case study #2 – Hutchison 3 UK
The role of laptops in independent VoIPo3G
Smartphones and VoIPo3G
Ease of use
Partnership models for pre-loading VoIPo3G on handsets
VoIP solution vendor snapshots
wVoIP software/service providers
Skype
Fring
Truphone
Others – existing VoIPo3G support
Others – existing focus on VoWLAN
wVoIP softphone & IMS client specialists
Handset manufacturers
Mobile VoIP that isn’t mobile VoIP
Enterprise VoIP suppliers
Embedded non-telephony VoIP
3rd party VoIPo3G business models
Revenue sources
Regulatory and legal status of 3rd-party VoIPo3G
Regulation
Competition law and interconnect
Spectrum regulation
IPR
Operators’ response: ignore, fight or collaborate?
Conclusion
VOIPO3G MARKET ANALYSIS & FORECASTS
Overview and general methodology
Uptake of 3G/3.5G/3.9G bearers & development of devices
Addressable device population for VoIPo3G
VoIPo3G penetration into addressable device population
Suitability of 3G services for VoIP
Flatrate data plans
User uptake of VoIPo3G when equipped with suitable devices &
services
Independent downloaded VoIPo3G
Operator / partner preloaded non-standard VoIPo3G
Operator non-telephony standardised VoIPo3G
Operator primary telephony VoIPo3G
VoIPo3G – Market and Forecast Summary
Comparison & coexistence with VoWLAN
Geographic segmentation of VoIPo3G user base
ABOUT DISRUPTIVE ANALYSIS
Intellectual Property Rights / Disclaimer
Figures & charts
Figure 1: HSPA / LTE leaves a 3-year window for over-the-top
VoIPo3G
Figure 2: Total VoIPo3G active user base, 2006-2012
Figure 3: VoIPo3G user base on HSPA/LTE networks, by business model
Figure 4: VoIPo3G capacity potential (courtesy of Ericsson)
Figure 4: Web services will enable new Voice 2.0 mobile services
Figure 5: Voice and VoIP is becoming embedded in non-phone devices
Figure 5: VoIP and all-IP networks should enable new mobile mashups
Figure 5: Many emerging ways to converge VoIP with mobile
Figure 6: VoIPo3G will increase handover complexity & permutations
Figure 7: Handset architectural complexity
Figure 8: Emerging handset OS/network landscape
Figure 9: Naked SIP handsets vs. Closed IMS handsets - shipments
Figure 10: Multiple architectural models for 3rd-party VoIP
Figure 11: VoIPo3G software & service value chain
Figure 11: VoIP vendors’ apparent focus on VoWLAN vs. VoIPo3G
Figure 14: Circuit VoIP call-through models avoid reliance on VoIPo3G
Figure 12: 3G & 3.5G Global subscriber forecast, 2007-2012
Figure 13: Detailed forecast for CDMA 3G+ generations, 2006-2012
Figure 14: Detailed forecast for 3GPP 3G+ generations, 2006-2012
Figure 15: Open smartphone/featurephone 3.5G+ subscribers, 2006-12
Figure 16: HSDPA/HSPA/LTE subscribers by device type, 2006-12
Figure 17: EV-DO Rev A/B/UMB subscribers by device type, 2006-12
Figure 18: Total independent downloaded VoIPo3G users
Figure 19: Independent VoIPo3G users, % split by device & technology
Figure 20: Penetration of independent VoIPo3G among suitable devices
Figure 21: Total preloaded / partnership-based VoIPo3G users
Figure 22: Penetration of operator/partner preloaded non-std VoIPo3G
Figure 23: Active user segments of operator/partner preloaded VoIPo3G
Figure 24: Total operator standard non-telephony VoIPo3G users
Figure 25: Penetration of standard operator non-telephony VoIPo3G, %
Figure 26: Active users of operator's non-telephony VoIPo3G, % split
Figure 27: Penetration of users of operator primary telephony VoIPo3G
Figure 28: Operator primary telephony VoIPo3G subscribers, by network
Figure 29: Active users of operator primary telephony VoIPo3G, % split
Figure 30: Total VoIPo3G active user base (est. unique users), 2006-2012
Figure 31: VoIPo3G active user summary - CDMA networks, 2006-2012
Figure 32: VoIPo3G active user summary - 3GPP networks, 2006-2012
Figure 33: VoIPo3G active user summary - all networks, 2006-2012
Figure 34: Total independent developer oppo., VoIPo3G vs VoWLAN
Figure 35: Total operator wVoIP opportunity, VoIPo3G vs VoWLAN
Figure 36: Segmentation of VoIPo3G user base by geographic region
Tables
Table 2: Largest CDMA carriers – Rev A status
Table 3: EV-DO Rev A carrier deployments and commitments
Table 4: CDMA operators face limited risk from 3rd party VoIPo3G
Table 5: Ericsson’s view of VoIPo3G capacity potential
Table 6: Qualcomm’s view of VoIPo3G capacity potential
Table 7: HSUPA deployment status, October 2007
Table 8: 3GPP SAE Architecture
Table 9: IMS-based VoIP will need tight integration with handset s/w
Table 10: Simultaneous introduction of LTE, VoIP & multimedia?
Table 11: 3GPP operators face significant risk from 3rd party VoIPo3G
Table 12: Independent wVoIP has consistently run ahead of operators
Table 13: Independent VoIPo3G use cases will vary by device type
Table 14: Notebook users actively using HSPA & LTE
Table 18: 3G and 3.5G subscribers by technology, 2006-2012
Table 19: 3.5G open smartphone/featurephone subs by radio technology
Table 20: 3.5G locked smartphone/featurephone subs by radio tech
Table 21: 3.5G notebook / modem subscriptions by radio technology
Table 22: 3.5G other devices subscriptions by radio technology
Table 23: HSDPA, HSPA & LTE subscribers by device type, 2006-2012
Table 24: EV-DO Rev A/B & UMB subscribers by device type, 2006-2012
Table 25: Penetration of independent VoIPo3G downloaded client users
Table 26: Operator/Partner non-standard preloaded VoIPo3G users
Table 27: Operator standard non-telephony VoIPo3G users (PTT etc)
Table 28: Operator standardised primary telephony VoIPo3G users
Table 30: VoIPo3G active user summary - total
Table 31: VoIPo3G active user summary - total CDMA/3GPP2 networks
Table 32: VoIPo3G active user summary - total 3GPP networks
Table 33: Indicative forecasts for active VoWLAN usage, by type
Table 34: Total wVoIP usage – independent providers’ opportunity
Table 35: Total wireless VoIP usage - operators' overall opportunity
Table 36: Estimated VoIPo3G user base by geographic region
Companies & organisations discussed include
3GPP, 3GPP2, Airvana,
Alcatel-Lucent, Apple, Atelier, AT&T, CDG, Challenger Mobile, Cicero, Cisco,
Comneon, D2 Technologies, Ecrio, Ericsson, FaceBook, FarEasTone, FCC, fg
Microtec, Firsthand, Fring, GIPS, Gizmo, Google, GSMA, HelloSoft, Huawei, HTC,
Hutchison 3, KDDI, Movial, Microsoft, Motorola, NGMN, Nokia, Nokia Siemens
Networks, Nortel, NTT DoCoMo, OMA, OMTP, Optimobile, Qualcomm, Samsung, Sonus,
Sprint Nextel, Siemens Communications, Skype, Sonim, Symbian, T-Mobile,
Telefonica, Tivi, Truphone, Verizon, Vodafone, WiFiMobile, Yeigo, ZTE
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